Prices are absolutely wacky right now.

There has not been a lot going on in stocks and bonds - unless you count insanity!

With the collapse of financial markets and an assured recession that will last one or more years, it seemed certain that prices for collectibles in general would soften. Prices in our hobby, however, have been at 10-year lows for over a year, so I am really quite uncertain how much further prices will fall.

So far, prices have not collapsed, but they remain soft. However, prices seem much less predictable than I think I have ever seen. Prices are all over the board! Price are both absurdly high and pathetically low at the same time.

In early October, I saw a bond from the Mexican Pacific Railway sell for a very strong $180! I had not seen the bond sell for awhile and was surprised at the strong showing.

Obviously, in live auction situations, it takes a minimum of TWO people to bid prices up. High prices don't happen in a vacuum. While the winner ultimately paid $180, there had to have been at least one other bidder willing to pay $160 to $170.

(Yes, high minimum starting prices are popular in European auctions and they often limit sales to single bidders. In that respect, "auctions" with high starting prices approach the definition of fixed-price sales. In those cases, sellers essentially take over the role of one bidder. By saying, "I'm willing to hold onto these item at these starting prices," sellers are putting in first bids. If no one is willing to pay more, then sellers' implied "bids" win. While there are few "absolute" auctions in the U.S., lower starting prices make U.S. auctions of certificates seem more competitive.)

Then this morning, I saw another example of the same bond sell on eBay for a mere $29 at a "Buy It Now" price. This is what I mean by insane prices. One certificate sold for six times! as much as a nearly identical one. How can we perceive a market direction when prices are so wacky?

In mid October I saw several U.S. certificates sell in the U.K. for what I considered borderline insane prices. Several lots sold for amounts two to five times more than reasonable collectors would have paid. Remember, it takes at least two to tango in genuine live auctions. Hopefully, they saw something in person that had been undescribed in the catalog. Maybe there were autographs. Maybe there were imperf revenues. Maybe there were multiples or undescribed extras. Without expending a lot of energy, there's no way for me to know.

All I can tell for sure is that prices are currently displaying crazy prices ranges right now. If you are a collector picking up certificates at the low end, good for you! Keep it up. If you are participating at the high end, then I sincerely suggest you step back, take a deep breath, and be sure you know what you're doing.

Yes, some of those certificates are quite rare. However, don't be too sure that you will get your money back out in any reasonable amount of time. Now may be the time for bargain-hunting, but it is most assuredly a time for caution.

Check out BullMarketGifts.com

I thought I would let all of you know of a site for vintage and one-of-a-kind Wall Street memorabilia, objects d'art, and collectibles - BullMarketGifts.com. You will find bull and bear theme office, wall and desk accessories as well as a good selection of Wall Street-related art work and collectibles. There is also a selection of framed certificates involving some of the big-name brokerages and companies as well as a selection of collectible Wall Street books. Check out BullMarketGifts.com.

Spink Smythe Autumn Stock & Bond Sale

Spink Smythe's latest sale catalog #289 (mislabeled #288 in tiny numbers on the spine) arrived yesterday. This catalog presents a departure from previous stock and bond sales in that it is now in FULL color. I know that increases production costs, but I think the effort will be most welcomed by collectors around the globe.

The Autumn Stock & Bond Sale will take place at the company's New York offices at 10:00 am, November 7, 2008. The sale features 617 lots with 161 lots involving North American railroads. The buyer's premium is 20% of the hammer price per lot on the first $2000, and 15% thereafter.

Unlike European competitors, Spink Smythe's sales have always offered fair minimum bids. I cannot overstate the importance of this approach for the hobby. By setting reasonable minimum bids, collectors can "feel" the direction of prices, and therefore the direction of the hobby. Astute bidders can get a feeling for how to bid in future auctions and recognize fair versus unfair buying opportunities in fixed price settings.

Reasonable opening prices allow sales of items to develop "momentum" on their way to ultimate sales prices. This is especially important in down markets. Professional auctioneers always seek price momentum. When collectibles have price momentum, they usually achieve higher prices. One of the tricks is to start sales at fair opening bids and thereby allow bidders to generate emotion and enthusiasm, otherwise known as "auction fever." High opening minimums always stifle "auction fever."

I really don't know what kinds of prices we'll see in today's freaked out financial climate. I doubt we'll see any record breaking. However, I can testify that there are some great and rarely-seen certificates in this sale. In situations such as today, moneyed buyers can really clean up. I am NOT predicting, but ... I will not be terribly surprised to see a medium to high percentage of lots sold. (European auctions with high minimum starting bids always have low percentages of lots sold.)

Because of the turbulent financial news, last week's Las Vegas automobile auction was unenthusiastic and disappointing for sellers. However, those advanced collectors with money made some absolutely great buys! Those were the few people that recognize that buying collectibles in times like these can pay off very handsomely indeed.

I think this Spink Smythe sale represents a similar buying opportunity for stock and bond collectors with vision. The pros know that the best time to buy is when everyone else is running scared.

Be sure to contact Spink Smythe immediately for this handsome catalog. Thankfully, the catalog is already online and available for viewing. 147 of the 161 railroad-related lots are illustrated online.

HWPH Auction 11

I just received the latest offering from Matthias Schmitt's company HWPH Historisches Wertpapierhaus. Auction 11 will be held at Schloss Montabaur (Castle of Montabaur) in Montabaur, Germany November 8 and 9, 2008.

As usual, the huge HWPH catalog is a full-color work of art. Essentially all of the 2207 lots are illustrated in color with over 100 lots from U.S. and North American companies. In addition to the catalog, you may examine all lots online. From the home page, click on the "auktionen" link at the left to see the entire catalog.

Herr Schmitt has been a long-time contributor to my project and I always look forward to his offerings. HWPH charges the typical 15% commission rate plus the unavoidable European value added tax (on the commission only). Counting commission and VAT, plan on paying 19.85% on top of your bid amount. Fortunately, the U.S. dollar has risen substantially relative to the Euro in the last couple months, so the penalty to American buyers is decreasing. HWPH takes PayPal, so international payment is now extremely easy. (Feel free to communicate with HWPH in English with any questions you may have.)

Please contact the HWPH Historisches Wertpapierhau AG for a catalog or bidding instructions.

H.J.W. Daugherty, Auction 150

The lastest offering from Duagherty came only yesterday and the auction will be held Sunday. You will need to move quickly if you want to get any bids in on the 13 lots of railroad stocks and bonds.

Daugherty has been a regular philatelic auctioneer (stamps) for a long, long time. This particular auction will be held at the Walpex Show in Lexington, MA, October 19, 2008. Duagherty always accepts mail and fax bids, so this means you will need to order a catalog quickly.

Daugherty has resisted the steady climb in auction commissions and still charges only 10%.

While the vast proportion of Duagherty's auctions are, of course, stamp-related, he ALWAYS offers a few railroad stock and bond lots. And because most of his bidders are more interested in stamps, it is fairly easy to win lots.

Daugherty has a listing of the catalog online at hjwdonline. You may also get in line for future catalogs from his web site.

Clinton Hollins catalogs received

For those not already familiar, Clinton Hollins is a long-time dealer in stocks and bonds. Clinton is a no-frills kind of guy who simply goes about his business selling certificates. Clinton has a huge web site that shows much of his vast inventory. Some of us have privately wondered where he gets all his certificates, month in month out.

Because Clinton goes about his business so quietly, it is easy for newcomers to under-estimate both the depth of his inventory and the frugality of his prices. When I frequently mention that "some dealers routinely offer certificates at prices below eBay," this is the guy I'm talking about.

Several times a year, Clinton sends out no-frills, unillustrated price lists. Each one is around 36 pages. He usually prices most items as single and multiples, depending on how many he has in stock.

If you don't already receive Clinton's lists, contact him and be sure to tell him what your specialty might be. The easiest way to contact him is at:

Clinton Hollins
PO Box 2711
Springfield, VA 22152-2711

October 11 Scott Winslow Auction

The latest offerings from Scott J. Winslow Associates Inc will take place October 11. This is a mail, phone and live internet auction, meaning you can bid live via eBay. As always, in cases of tie bids, the earliest bid received takes precedence, so I always recommend bidding as early as you can.

This sale is 100% focused on stocks and bonds. The offering includes 847 lots, with 337 representing railroad companies. As usual, Scott will offer gobs of heavy-hitter autographs, with more than 80 lots involving railroad certificates. Among the autographed items are Gould, Harriman, Commodore Vanderbilt and several lots involving J.P. Morgan.

Winslow remains one of the few auction houses which has not hiked his commission structure. Winslow's rate is still 15% of the hammer price. Because of eBay fees, successful online bidders will pay an additional 5%. This should give you additional incentive to bid early.

I also applaud Scott for clearly stating his minimum acceptable bid - "60% of the low estimate." I really don't understand why many other houses find this concept so hard to understand.

I don't have time for a full count, but it looks like 85% to 90% of the lots are illustrated. Be warned that illustrations are in black and white in the catalog, which is one of the ways to control costs in order to keep commission fees affordable.

Contact Scott J. Winslow Associates immediately to receive a copy of the 102 page catalog. You may also see an Acrobat version of the catalog on the web site. Obviously, color images will appear for the online sale. (You must be registered in advance to participate in the live eBay action.)