Scripophily.com 2010 calendar available

Thankfully, a calendar available well before the end of the year!

Bob Kerstein has again published a beautiful 13-month calendar for 2010 featuring a classic stock or bond for each month. Like last year, the new Scripophily.com calendar is priced at $9.95, but you will receive one for free with any purchase.

As always, contact Bob at Scripophily.com or at 1-888-STOCKS6 (1-888-786-2576).

August Newsletter Online

Two newsletters within a month? What's up?

Well, I had a lot more to say about the concept of rarity and how it relates — or doesn't relate — to price. This time I try to point out several serious flaws in The Myth is that says "rare is valuable."

The basic idea is that just because a collectible is scarce or rare does not mean it is automatically valuable. Someone needs to have the desire to own it. And not just one or two people, but a bunch.

I was talking with one of my car-collecting buddies the other day about the concept of demand. I pointed to a one-of-a-kind bond and asked, "So how much would you pay for this baby?"
"A dollar."

"But you collect old cars and you play golf. You can afford more."

"Okay, two dollars. I don't want to piss you off."

"What if I told you it was unique? One-of-a-kind. Only one on the planet. A whole lot rarer than those old junk heaps you collect."

"Great. I don't feel so bad about upping my offer to two bucks."

This tongue-in-cheek conversation illustrates a concept we agree on 100%. And yet so few collectors fully undertstand. If a collecting hobby is small and only a few people want something, exceedingly rare items might not be worth much at all. It does not matter what a cataloger or seller thinks collectibles should be worth. And it certainly doesn't matter what collectors originally paid. Value is determined strictly by how much future collectors want things. It does not matter whether collectibles are rare or common; prices can be very flexible.

In this issue, I examine five certificates that have historically sold for about $75. I show how many serial numbers are known and I estimate how many examples might exist. I think you'll find the numbers enlightening.

This deeper examination of rarity shows a pardoxical twist.

No matter how much we understand about the flawed and indirect relationship between rarity and price, I actually don't think it is possible to change our behavior or thinking. Not even one little bit. I suggest that the very next time we evaluate a collectible for purchase, rarity will be the first thing we will think of. No matter how much we know better, I think all collectors, including myself, unconsciously believe The Myth that "rare means valuable."

Download the August 2009 Coxrail newletter.

9th Annual Stock Certificate & Bond Show approaching

I just received announcement of the next Stock and Bond show coming up in January. As before, the show will take place at the Crowne Plaza Hotel two miles from Dulles Airport in Herndon, Virginia, Jan 29-30, 2010.

I strongly suspect that most dealers are already informed, but if you want to set up a table at the show, you need to contact Bob Schell as soon as possible. Early bird savings end September 30.

For those of you wanting to stay at the hotel, contact Crowne Plaza at 800-227-6963 and mention the code "BON" for special rates. Again, you are advised to make reservations as soon as possible.

July 2009 issue of Scripophily mailed to members

The latest issue of Scripophily is out and is better than ever. The latest issue is 36 full-color pages chock-full of news of the stock and bond hobby. Scripophily is the publication of the International Bond and Share Society (IBSS).

The publishing schedule is now three issues per year, which I think is good. Issues will be sufficiently frequent to keep readers interested in the hobby of collecting stocks and bonds, but not so frequent as to run out of stories.

Major articles this time are:

• Australian Breweries


• The Railway to Nowhere


• London's River Crossings


• Where Did All Those Cancelled Certificates Come From?

There are numerous shorter articles including:

• How Does the Crisis Impact the Scripophily Market?


• D-Day Discovery


• Award for John Herzog


• Puzzler (about a Pacific Mail Steamship printing plate)

Recurring columns include:

• Society Matters


• Cox's Corner


• The Traveler


• Auction News


• Auction Reviews


• Events Calendar

You will receive Scripophily with your membership which is a meager $25 per year. I know that $25 does not sound like enough. I'm pretty sure you can contribute more without receiving any major complaints.

The IBSS has honored me most graciously by naming me a member of its editorial board. Nonetheless, my opinions are my own.

I hold an extremely serious conviction that all of us take huge amounts from our hobbies. We all build collections on the countless years of experience and wisdom of collectors, dealers, researchers, authors and catalogers who have preceeded us. That means that all of us — collectors and dealers alike — owe our enjoyment and appreciation to people we can never possibly repay. Since repayment to our benefactors is impossible, our only option is to pay forward to all those unseen collectors who will follow. No, not all of us can contribute articles, research and excitement. But we can all support our hobbies through membership in organizations.

The hobby of collecting stocks and bonds is microscopic by comparison to hobbies like stamps, coins, automobiles and art. That means small organizations like the IBSS are greatly dependent on our membership. I'm not talking only about monetary involvement. I am saying that members like you and me are seriously crucial to the health of the hobby by our mere presence.

I personally ask you to please consider adding your voice and your presence to this enjoyable hobby. Join us in the International Bond and Share Society today. And receive your subscription to Scripophily in the bargain!

July newsletter - Play fair...with your heirs

Collectors have this nagging habit of dying and leaving the task of selling their collections to their heirs. I've never been so lucky, but I've heard inheritance can be a good thing. On the other hand, it can be unpleasant to inherit a collection you know little about and then need to sell it. And we're not not even getting into the emotional issues.

Selling collectibles is not necessarily easy, even for the pros. If it were easy, everybody would be doing it.

The difficulty can be compounded, sometimes quite dramatically, if collectors give their heirs inflated expectations of value. In this issue, I talk about why it is so crucial for collectors to be honest with their heirs. They must go to great lengths to avoid exaggerating values.

You may see the latest issue at http://www.coxrail.com/newsletters/2009-07.pdf. (Or download to your computer by right-clicking on the link and choosing "Save Target As".) You may see all back issues at http://www.coxrail.com/newsletters.htm

(The number of) Sales on eBay are up

I have noticed a marked increase in the number of successful stock and bond sales on eBay in the last two or three weeks. Within this observation, I can imagine seeing a few possible indications. (I'm not saying they are there; it is merely a way to interpret activity.)

1) There seems to be a pent-up demand. Collectors seem determined to buy. Never mind that no experts are claiming an end to the recession. Never mind that the unemployment rate has not improved. Never mind that business managers say they expect more layoffs in coming months. Regardless of somewhat dismal news, collectors are buying.

2) Prices are NOT up. They remain flat to somewhat down.

3) There are substantial numbers of eBay offerings relative to the number of successful sales. Unsold lots outnumber successful sales by two to four times. This suggests sellers are still setting minimum prices above actual market prices. However, the high number of offerings suggests we may be approaching capitulation. The stock market encounters a point of capitulation when stock holders give up and decide they can no longer afford to sustain further declines. At that point, they sell regardless of price. When they capitulate, they show they are no longer willing to wait for an upturn. We may be seeing that happening among weaker eBay sellers. While bad for those sellers, the market cannot genuinely improve until a definite bottom is reached.

4) There has been a most definite shift among the days that sales close. Probably 60% to 80% of the sales of collectible stocks and bonds used to close on the weekend. Sales are now closing in almost equal numbers throughout the week. I think that is a very good trend for sellers, but I have absolutely no idea why it is happening. (By having the majority of sales close almost simultaneously on the weekends, sellers were previously forcing buyers to ration their bids. Sellers never seem to understand that buyers try to avoid winning too many sales at once.)

5) This same trend (no discernible price improvement but more sales) is happening in two other areas of collectibles I track.

Third Edition Schedule

Because publishing schedules always have a tendency to slip, including mine, I will NOT divulge plans for the third edition until I feel very confident things will move forward without delay. The text and cover design is finished, but I cannot afford the publishing risk right now.

My daily recording of prices unquestionably proves that average collectors are simply not spending much money on collectible stocks and bonds. Prices have been dropping for several years, and every time I think prices have hit bottom, I'm proven wrong. Demand for the rarest and most desireable items seems okay. Not strong, but okay.

It is the vast middle ground that has me concerned. Demand for all but the most desireable certificates seems very soft. Rightly or wrongly, this is my guidepost. My theory is that if average collectors aren't buying certificates, they probably have little desire to buy catalogs.

I think it unwise to risk a substantial amount of money on a new edition right now. Conceivably, if I can find compelling evidence of recovery - both in the economy and in prices of collectibles - I can issue a new edition in the spring or summer of 2010. Economists always disagree more than weather forecasters, but I am hearing few predictions of early recovery. Most predictions seem to indicate a longer recovery period. While I am aiming for a publishing date next year, I am giving only it a 50-50 chance.

I discuss this issue in more detail at Third Edition Schedule on the Coxrail site. In the meantime, I continue to collect prices and new information about certificates as I have for the last twenty years. As always, I update the online database every two weeks. That means that EVERY new certificate and every new serial number is listed online within no more than two weeks of discovery. Similarly, every new price is factored into my price estimates in the same schedule.