August 31, 2011

2012 Stock Certificate & Bond Show dates


Bob Schell's 2012 Northern Virginia Stock & Bond Show will take place at the Crowne Plaza Hotel-Dulles Airport next January 27 and 28. This will be Bob's 11th, well-respected show at this location. Prices will remain stable for dealers and collectors setting up tables. Admission to the show for collectors is $3.

Bob Schell
P.O. Box 222
St. Germain, WI 54558

The show site is only two miles from Washington Dulles Airport and there is a free shuttle for those arriving by air. Bob has negotiated an $89 room rate for those attending the show. (For special rates, mention 11th Annual National Stock and Bond Show and group code ENS.) To receive the special rates, be sure to make reservations prior to January 10. Call 1-800-227-6963.

Show times are 9am to 6pm on Friday Jan. 27 and 9am to 4pm on Saturday, Jan. 28. There will be a special breakfast for members of the International Bond and Share Society at 7:45am Saturday morning. If you are interested in setting up a table, please contact Bob for prices.
As always, don't diddle around in making reservations. Do it now. Four months goes by really, really quickly.

August 25, 2011

Price index updated


I record sales of railroad certificates every day, so I cannot help but notice price trends. While my database holds all sales prices, I still maintain a couple of special database fields where I manually track high and low prices. Yes, the database can always tell me those same record prices. However, manually recording new high and low prices lets me feel trends continually.

Sadly, I record twenty to thirty new record low prices for every new record high. In doing so, that gives me a very, very good feel for the direction of the market. Thankfully, it seems I am recording fewer and fewer record lows than I did in 2008 and 2009.

Having said that, I am still encountering extremely few new high prices. Generally, new highs appear only when there are new discoveries. (And there are more new discoveries than average collectors realize.)

While being close to prices on a daily basis certainly gives me a gut feel for the direction of the market, feelings can always be wrong. Feelings need confirmation. That can be gained only by stepping back and looking at prices in a more global manner.

A few years ago, I established my “market basket” price index to help clarify how the market was numerically behaving. My index tracks 43 certificate varieties that seem to be in the middle of the market. By that I mean that I used the database to identify railroad certificates that are neither too common nor too scarce and that typically sell a few times per year. By using a market basket of certificates, we can decrease the effects of sudden and unpredictable pricing quirks that can sometimes result from causes that have nothing to do with collecting, condition or rarity.

Yes, a typical collector who really wants to buy all 43 certificates would certainly stumble across some abnormally good deals in the process. On the other hand, that same collector would definitely make a few bad deals, too. Therefore, I decided to smooth out weird and non-rational price swings by basing index prices on averages of the last five sales prices for every certificate. I have a Price Index page on my web site that explains the rationale in more detail. That page also links to another that displays images of all 43 varieties.

Compared to the coin and stamp hobbies, our hobby is typified by very, very scarce collectibles. Market basket certificates are sufficiently scarce and sales sufficiently infrequent that I feel I can legitimately update the index only every six to twelve months.

By January, I will have thirteen full years of year-end prices. A few days ago, I updated the price index just to see where the market currently stands. As of this writing, the market is down 38% from its high in 2003.


Please understand that I do not like this price trend in the slightest. Oh sure, I know many advanced collectors are happy that they can get screaming deals on scarce and rare certificates. I understand. I really do! But I must warn them to temper their elation with the understanding that when it comes time for older collectors to sell, they are going to be selling into that very same, weakened market.

Dealers and collectors who think prices are still as high as they were in 2003 are seriously mistaken.

Few market watchers have crystal balls and all of their devices are very cloudy. No one knows when the market for collectible certificates is going to turn around. I genuinely hope it is tomorrow!

However, even if the market for railroad stocks and bonds turns around in the next 24 hours, I cannot help but wonder long will it take before prices recover to 2003 levels. Experienced observers know that typical market recovery takes substantially longer than periods of decline.

I hope our hobby is atypical.

August 10, 2011

Price history details improved


I recently changed a page on my web site to better report price history. You can find the page by locating any certificate of interest in the database. Then, simply click on any price estimate:


and a small new page will open.

That new page will show a summary of all recorded sales over periods of one, three, ten and twenty years.



This example shows a summary prices recorded for the well-known Blue Ridge Railroad bond from South Carolina. You can see that I have recorded sales for this certificate that have ranged from a low of $47 to a high of $125 during the last year. (Both were eBay sales) The average of all recorded sales was $96.

You can see that sale prices fell to as low as $8 in the last twenty years, probably representing a multi-item auction lot. Since that low price is older than ten years, you can surmise that it was an auction lot that predated eBay. (In fact, that price came from an old Smythe sale.)

You will also notice that one collector paid an extraordinarily high price ($256) between three and ten years ago. That price reflects a sale that took place in Germany. That high price included a 20% commission, further magnified by a period of extreme weakness of the U.S. dollar relative to the Euro.

My current price estimate is $75 to $100 and I last "touched" the price about four months ago. That means that I expect to that future sales will be about $75 to $100 whenever another Blue Ridge bond in average condition sells in the United States in a well-attended live auction.

Remember, I am offering a single price estimate, even though there are many separate markets. Each market displays different price behaviors.

For instance, if a sale of a Blue Ridge Railroad bond takes place in a well-attended, live German auction, I'd expect the sale price to be about 50 to 100 percent higher than my estimate. If a sale takes place on eBay, I'd imagine prices will be 25 to 40 percent lower than my estimate. If purchased from American dealers, prices for Blue Ridge bonds are likely to range from my lower estimate to maybe 25 percent above my high estimate. Prices for collectible certificates are highly flexible.

The point of showing this information is to let you see current trends in every certificate variety I record. Beware, however, that only about 7 percent (!) of all certificate varieties appear for public sale in any given year. While probably twice that many varieties appear for sale in shows and dealer offerings, there is no reliable method for collecting those prices. If individual collectors don't report their non-auction purchases, I never learn about them.

July 21, 2011

Scanning hints consolidated and enlarged



Ever since I started the Coxrail site, I have included tips on scanning stocks and bonds. It can be challenging to get good images of certificates, especially those with engraved vignettes and lettering. Certificates seem deceptively normal when, in fact, they are not. Instead of having pictures made of multiple tones of gray, certificate vignettes are constructed from series of very fine, very closely-spaced engraved lines. Instead of having lettering like normal typeset documents, certificate lettering is often engraved by hand with letters only one or two pixels wide.

After writing the June 23 post, I went back through the entire Coxrail site and re-examined everything I'd written about scanning. I had hints and tips sprinkled everywhere. It was impossible to remember what I'd written, let alone remember where I'd put it. I found I had written several of the same things several different times on several different pages. From the perspective of months and even years since writing, some comments sounded inconsistent. Not to mention that technology had improved. Matters had gotten completely out of hand.

I finally decided to consolidate all my writings about scanning in one place.

Scanning certificates is now the starting place for everything having to do with scanning. From that page, you will find links to many different pages, each focused on one aspect of scanning certificates.

There are currently 27 pages in the new section, each displaying the 'SCANNING' logo as shown at the top of this article. The basic concept is to talk about one concept at a time and let readers follow whatever 'rabbit tracks' of information they find interesting.

Yes, I kept the popular page dedicated to Quick Scanning Hints for collectors who want to scan better but don't want to overthink the subject.

For those who enjoy the nitty gritty, I've added substantial new pages that discuss image File formats and terminology such as Understanding bits and Pixels, dots and samples. I have greatly enlarged my discussion about JPG (JPEG) compression and show why compression, even extreme compression, is not always the bad thing some pros would have you believe.


Note for readers coming to this page from search engines. If you want to learn about scanning and manipulating ordinary photographs, I need to send you back to search elsewhere. All the information I present and every opinion I express concerns the specialized task of scanning certificates. Nothing else.

June 23, 2011

Microsoft Image Composite Editor


After recent conversations with a long-time contributor, I set out to investigate "image stitchers." That is computo-jargon for software that will patch together multiple scans or photographs. I stumbled on software by Microsoft that is outright amazing. It is amazing because of how good it is, how quick it is and how pain-free it is.

Best of all, it is completely FREE!

Its official name is Microsoft Image Composite Editor, or "ICE" for short. It is developed by Microsoft Research and is currently in release 1.4.4. It can be used on Microsoft XP, Vista and Windows 7 machines, either 32-bit or 64-bit. There are no fancy graphics to show you. None at all. No flash. No trash. Just kick-butt programming. It is available for download from http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/um/redmond/groups/ivm/ICE/.



Let, me tell you, I have used Photoshop for years. I continue use Photoshop when I need to adjust images at the scale of individual pixels. However, I have already abandoned Photoshop for all other image stitching.

I can hardly believe I'm saying this, but ICE is that good!

ICE is so intuitive and simple that the only thing you really need to do is open the program and get to work. Microsoft has a video tutorial, but I haven't even looked at it yet. In order to start stitching images of certificates, the hardest thing is installation. I'll get to that later. I first want to show you how it works.

I took the largest bond I could find (21" x 23") and unfolded it to its full extent. I then scanned the certificate in nine pieces. Alignment is not crucial. In my example, I scanned five pieces with the bond facing one direction and the other four pieces with the bond facing the opposite direction. Here is a collection of my images. (You can't see it in these tiny images, but the attached coupon sheet was scanned upside down.)


Next, I dropped all nine images into ICE. Simply open your explorer window so you can see all your images. Select all pieces and drag and drop them into the main ICE screen. That is it! You can try to make it more complicated, but if you simply drag and drop all your pieces into ICE at one time, you can just step back and let the program work.

You won't need to wait long!

I scanned this bond at 200 dpi and all nine images totalled 11 megabytes, On my machine, stitching took 33 seconds. Here is what the ICE screen looks like.


During those 33 seconds, the software examined all the pieces, calculated which edges matched which others, re-oriented all the pieces, adjusted coloration along the overlapping edges and created a whole image.

Next, you save out the image into one of several popular formats.



ICE is a panorama stiching program, not an image manipulation program. Consequently, you will need some ofther program to prefectly align and trim your final product. (What do you want for FREE?) Here is the resulting image.


As one would expect, images MUST be overlapped suffiently in order for the program to find pixels to match. Minimum overlap is a function of scanning resolution. With certificates, I found the minimum necessary overlap to be around 150 pixels. In this example scanned at 200 dpi, my minimum overlap needed to be about 0.75". In stitching certificates, I figure the more overlap the better.

So where is the problem? Installation.

By itself, the program is tiny. It's small size is made possible because ICE relies on the latest version of Microsoft's huge ".Net" (pronounced "dot Net") framework. Here's the process.of installation.

Download the appropriate program version (32-bit or 64-bit) from Microsoft Research. I strongly suggest you download the installation program to your hard drive. When ready, double click on the installation program.

Next, the installation package will look at services installed on your machine. It will almost certainly tell you it needs to install the latest versions of ".Net" and "Visual C++." Have patience. While you already have some .Net on your computer, downloading and installing the latest version of .Net will take several minutes, depending on the speed of your internet connection. Visual C++ will take less time, but will still test your patience.

When finished installing .Net and Visual C++, you will think you're ready to go. Nope. Go back to the ICE installation package and double-click it one more time. The real installation of ICE starts and only takes a minute or so. You will know you are nearly finished when you see the screen that says, "Welcome to the Microsoft Image Composite Editor Setup Wizard." A few more screens and you're ready to scan and stitch images..

January 28, 2011

Understanding the collecting gene


The January 23 installment of the CBS Sunday Morning program had a several minute segment on an amazing collection being offered by Sotheby’s. Collector Jerry Green amassed a giant collection of over 40,000 toy trains and related stations, figures, bridges and so forth. The collection is hugely important because it represents every single item ever made by several different companies.

My main interest is not the depth and breadth of the collection. Rather, it concerns an observation that reporter Martha Teichner made. She said, “One look will convince you that there is such a thing as a collecting gene, and that Jerry Green inherited it.”

We can debate whether the mythic gene is transmissible, but the manifestation of the collecting gene is plainly obvious to all of us involved in collecting. While remarkably few people understand and accept the nature of the “collecting gene,” the CBS Sunday Morning report touched on every important concept.

Collecting is about searching for and acquiring “one of everything” within targeted specialties. Collectors who carry the collecting gene:

1) clearly and absolutely define their specialties, and

2) find a method of determining what items they seek to acquire.

While Jerry Green’s quest of collecting model trains and accessories is quite common, his execution is not. He precisely defined his acquisition goals through the use of vintage manufacturers’ catalogs. Green started with the Bing catalog, marking off every item he acquired until he had no more targets. Then he moved on to different manufacturers.

Ultimately, he ran out of manufacturers.

Green was fortunate to have started early and was able to fuel his passion with large sums of disposable cash. Today, his collection is worth multiple tens of millions of dollars. However, value was most assuredly not his primary goal. This is another defining quality of the collecting gene and one I cannot stress enough.

3) The goal of collecting is pursuit, not ownership.

Yes, acquisition is necessary. Items are not collected until they are owned. But once owned, individual items quickly lose their previous allure. This is the point that confuses non-collectors rather terribly. They think that collectors’ pleasure comes from ownership. Nay, nay, nay! It is the pursuit, pure and simple.

Sure, ownership is nice. Certainly fulfilling. Yet, once items are acquired, their previous importance dims, replaced almost immediately by new quests. Non-collectors will never grasp the concept that the next quest is greatly more important than any previous success.

Jerry Green’s indescribable collection made it onto TV because of its size and the fact that Sotheby’s is offering it for sale. The report got me thinking about how easy it is to spot non-collectors. Profit is always the main concern of non-collectors. Mr. Green and his heirs will surely profit from the sale of his collection, but financial reward is hardly the reason for disposal. As Green told Teichner, “I definitely will collect something else.” Every collector knew the answer the moment Teichner asked Green whether he’d fill up his collecting rooms again. “Absolutely! I’m a collector. I would have to. That’s the fun.”

4) Profit is not the goal of collecting.

In the last twenty years, I cannot tell you how few times I’ve heard collectors talk about intended profit. In my role as advisor, I rather wish this weren’t so true. I deeply wish collectors would consider their heirs more than they do. I often wish collectors would consider their purchases with a little more thought of profit. But profit is simply not in their vocabulary.

Few of us ordinary mortals have the monetary resources of Mr. Jerry Green and other big, big names in collecting. The beauty of collecting, though, is that we can all pursue collecting in our own way. We may need to temper our goals with financial reality, but that does not mean we can’t enjoy the chase.

Of all the things we can say about collecting, of all the psychological mumbo-jumbo we could argue, one clear point repeats itself time and time again. Collecting, like exploration, hunting, game-playing and numerous other hobbies, is purely and simply about the pursuit.

5) No pursuit, no hobby.

Again, Sunday Morning confirmed this important point. The CBS program clearly explained that Green decided to sell the collection when he ran out of good pieces to buy. There was simply nothing substantive left to pursue. Green had to sell so he could move on to the next quest. What fun!

One of my clients told me that he had once considered collecting elements. (You know, things like copper, iron, samarium, etc.) Not just a few – all of them. But he quickly abandoned the idea. He discovered that he could buy all but a few elements in one fell swoop by merely writing a check. And not a very big check at that. Shrugging his shoulders, he asked, “Where’s the fun in that?”


Where indeed?

Which brings me to the question of Sotheby’s sale of the Green collection. The company intends to sell the collection intact to one buyer. Wait a minute! What kind of “collector” wants to buy a collection in that manner? Even the most rudimentary examination of collecting proves that true collectors don’t acquire that way. They want to pursue items one at a time. I can see a museum buying the entire Green collection, but I simply cannot imagine a true collector doing so.

On the other hand, I can imagine someone buying the entire collection, and then parting it out in series of auctions over the next ten or twenty years! While I have a hard time imagining having a checkbook of that magnitude, I can certainly envision how selling a collection of greatly rare items, one at a time, to thousands of desirous collectors would be tremendous fun. Oh well. Like a thousand other pursuits, I’ll need to leave that pipe dream for someone else.

November 29, 2010

Hucksterism in our hobby


Who would you rather buy from? A huckster? Or someone who treats you as something more than a brain stem? Speaking for myself, I try to avoid buying from hucksters when I can. I prefer buying from reputable sellers who don’t shout at me from the tops of their lungs.

And hucksters love to shout. They love words like “** WOW **” and “L@@K” because they grab attention. Never mind that they say absolutely nothing.

Regardless of their methods for attracting attention, hucksters are predisposed to overstate and oversell. When they do that, they unwittingly get themselves into trouble. Hucksters may understand selling techniques, but they never seem to understand collectors. They simply do not realize that collectors spend tremendous effort in studying the nuances of their hobbies. I am absolutely convinced that when they under-estimate their market and over-sell their products, hucksters sell less than they could by more forthright methods.

In our hobby, hucksters tend to focus their over-selling and over-valuation in four key areas:

1) Rarity. “RARE” is the promotional king of all buzz words concern collectibles. It is our hobby’s most over-used term. Isn’t it odd that some hucksters sell nothing but rare certificates? Isn’t it odd that they offer inexhaustible supplies of rare certificates and yet manage to sell them for such meager amounts? Shouldn’t rare certificates sell for more than ten or twenty dollars?

2) Autographs. The second most popular way of overselling certificates to promote autographs from unknown and unimportant people. Just because people were elected to political offices or promoted to elevated military ranks means nothing if those people did not leave lasting effects on a nation, a state or an industry. Let’s face numerical facts: there is a good reason why only a miniscule percentage of autographs are valuable. Over 2,500 men achieved the rank of “general” in the Civil War. Over 2,300 people have served as governors of states and territories. Thousands have served in the United States Senate and House of Representatives and fifty (!) times as many have served in similar capacities in state legislatures. How many tens of thousands of people have served in high appointed positions and as corporate executives? Hucksters want their targets to overlook the obvious question: “How can all those people be celebrities?”

3) Low serial numbers. eBay sellers frequently promote certificates with “low” serial numbers, without any knowledge of what “low” means. They never seem to care that the lowest serial number for some varieties might be 5000 or that the serial number they are promoting may, in fact, represent the highest number ever recorded for that variety. Over-promoting low serial numbers ignores a confirmed reality: European collectors seldom pay premiums for serial numbers higher than #3. U.S. collectors often refuse to pay premiums even for #1 certificates.

4) Historical significance. I once saw an eBay seller compile a 4000-word dissertation about a railroad company whose certificates seldom sell for more than $20. He was obviously trying to convince buyers that his certificates were more valuable because the company was so important. Did he not realize that there is almost no relationship between historical significance and certificate values? Sometimes, low-issue certificates from barely-known companies are more valuable than those from important companies of great longevity. Sometimes the inverse is true.

Don’t get me wrong. I am not equating advertising with hucksterism. Our hobby needs and in fact depends on truthful advertising. Hucksterism, on the other hand, embraces exaggeration and over-statement and sometimes treads dangerously close to deception. Hucksters will always be part of the landscape when buying and selling collectibles. They are not going away. However, I am unconvinced that it is necessary to resort to hucksterism in order to sell certificates.