July 28, 2009

July newsletter - Play fair...with your heirs


Collectors have this nagging habit of dying and leaving the task of selling their collections to their heirs. I've never been so lucky, but I've heard inheritance can be a good thing. On the other hand, it can be unpleasant to inherit a collection you know little about and then need to sell it. And we're not not even getting into the emotional issues.

Selling collectibles is not necessarily easy, even for the pros. If it were easy, everybody would be doing it.

The difficulty can be compounded, sometimes quite dramatically, if collectors give their heirs inflated expectations of value. In this issue, I talk about why it is so crucial for collectors to be honest with their heirs. They must go to great lengths to avoid exaggerating values.

You may see the latest issue at http://www.coxrail.com/newsletters/2009-07.pdf. (Or download to your computer by right-clicking on the link and choosing "Save Target As".) You may see all back issues at http://www.coxrail.com/newsletters.htm

July 21, 2009

(The number of) Sales on eBay are up


I have noticed a marked increase in the number of successful stock and bond sales on eBay in the last two or three weeks. Within this observation, I can imagine seeing a few possible indications. (I'm not saying they are there; it is merely a way to interpret activity.)

1) There seems to be a pent-up demand. Collectors seem determined to buy. Never mind that no experts are claiming an end to the recession. Never mind that the unemployment rate has not improved. Never mind that business managers say they expect more layoffs in coming months. Regardless of somewhat dismal news, collectors are buying.

2) Prices are NOT up. They remain flat to somewhat down.

3) There are substantial numbers of eBay offerings relative to the number of successful sales. Unsold lots outnumber successful sales by two to four times. This suggests sellers are still setting minimum prices above actual market prices. However, the high number of offerings suggests we may be approaching capitulation. The stock market encounters a point of capitulation when stock holders give up and decide they can no longer afford to sustain further declines. At that point, they sell regardless of price. When they capitulate, they show they are no longer willing to wait for an upturn. We may be seeing that happening among weaker eBay sellers. While bad for those sellers, the market cannot genuinely improve until a definite bottom is reached.

4) There has been a most definite shift among the days that sales close. Probably 60% to 80% of the sales of collectible stocks and bonds used to close on the weekend. Sales are now closing in almost equal numbers throughout the week. I think that is a very good trend for sellers, but I have absolutely no idea why it is happening. (By having the majority of sales close almost simultaneously on the weekends, sellers were previously forcing buyers to ration their bids. Sellers never seem to understand that buyers try to avoid winning too many sales at once.)

5) This same trend (no discernible price improvement but more sales) is happening in two other areas of collectibles I track.

July 10, 2009

Third Edition Schedule


Because publishing schedules always have a tendency to slip, including mine, I will NOT divulge plans for the third edition until I feel very confident things will move forward without delay. The text and cover design is finished, but I cannot afford the publishing risk right now.

My daily recording of prices unquestionably proves that average collectors are simply not spending much money on collectible stocks and bonds. Prices have been dropping for several years, and every time I think prices have hit bottom, I'm proven wrong. Demand for the rarest and most desireable items seems okay. Not strong, but okay.

It is the vast middle ground that has me concerned. Demand for all but the most desireable certificates seems very soft. Rightly or wrongly, this is my guidepost. My theory is that if average collectors aren't buying certificates, they probably have little desire to buy catalogs.

I think it unwise to risk a substantial amount of money on a new edition right now. Conceivably, if I can find compelling evidence of recovery - both in the economy and in prices of collectibles - I can issue a new edition in the spring or summer of 2010. Economists always disagree more than weather forecasters, but I am hearing few predictions of early recovery. Most predictions seem to indicate a longer recovery period. While I am aiming for a publishing date next year, I am giving only it a 50-50 chance.

I discuss this issue in more detail at Third Edition Schedule on the Coxrail site. In the meantime, I continue to collect prices and new information about certificates as I have for the last twenty years. As always, I update the online database every two weeks. That means that EVERY new certificate and every new serial number is listed online within no more than two weeks of discovery. Similarly, every new price is factored into my price estimates in the same schedule.

June 24, 2009

The Great West Exposition Train Co


Certificates from this "mystery" company began appearing in March of last year. While the purpose of the company had been a mystery, the more perplexing mystery was how little evidence of its existence it had left.

Certificates are currently known only in unissued form. The company was incorporated in Colorado and its certificates were printed by A.S. Carter Stamps, Seals and Printing of Denver.

David Adams, one of my three big contributors of obscure information, finally discovered this company in a magazine that had recently been scanned and indexed by Google Books.

An article about the company appeared in the November 1903 issue of Business Woman's Magazine. It appears the company intended to carry exhibits that promoted the western states and western immigration. Seemingly, the promoters of the project considered the Chicago and San Francisco World's Fairs had suffered moral lapses.

Thanks to Ed Lewis for an image of this certificate.

June 19, 2009

New York state revenues on bonds



Michael Mahler, one of my contributors, just finished a HUGE article on revenue stamps applied to bonds held by New York residents.

You can find parts 1, 2 and 3 of Mike's article on the American Revenue Association website. Unfortunately, part 4 of Mike's article exceeded the capability of the association's small website. He will post the final part once the association acquires more server space.

Mike tells me he has seen New York revenues on bonds dated as early as 1847 and as late as the 1920s. The revenue stamps he talks about in his article are most common on bonds of the 1890s to 1900s.

His article is titled, New York Mortgage Endorsement, Secured Debt, and Investment Stamp Taxes, 1911-1920. I will bet that most collectors who own more than a few railroad bonds have one of the stamps that Mike is interested in.

That is NOT to say that they are common. Quite the contrary. Some are quite hard to find. Collectors of stocks and bonds generally do not pay premiums for revenue stamps, but philatelists do. Mike points out that, "Some seen as common by scripophilists become rarities to philatelists!"

When you get to the research page of the American Revenue Association, you will find a previous article by Michael Mahler that you might also be interested in: Robert Schuyler's 1853-4 Stock Fraud on the New York and New Haven Railroad: the paper trail.
Mike sent two more stamps for illustration. You may find them on my Facebook page. (You do NOT need to be a member to see them.)

June 10, 2009

The Assassination of Colonel James Fisk, Jr.


(This article and accompanying woodcut images appeared in Frank Leslie's Illustrated Newspaper, Jan 20, 1872. James Fisk was Jay Gould's partner in his early railroad empire adventures, especially his takeover of the Erie Railroad. The Gould and Fisk era is probably best described in Maury Klein's, The Life and Legend of Jay Gould. Fisk was a larger than life character, ultimately undone by his behavior. In contrast, Gould preferred the shadows.)

WHEN in an article in our editorial columns we commented upon the lapse of time that had intervened since our city had been visited by any­thing like a genuine " sensation," it was not dreamt by us that even before that article should reach the eye of the public such an appalling tragedy would occur as that which, on the evening of January 6th, produced an excitement in our midst rarely equaled by the simple announcement of the death of a single member of our vast community.

The facts connected with the tragedy; as far as we have been enabled to collate them from the most reliable sources, are as follows :
On the morning of Saturday, January 6th, a hearing had taken place at the Yorkville Police Court before Justice Bixby in the matter of the charge of libel prepared by Mrs. Helen Josephine Mansfield and Edward S. Stokes against risk. After the conclusion of the examination for the day, Stokes, accompanied by his coun­sel, Hon. John McKeon and Assistant District Attorney Fellows, repaired to Delmonico's, at the corner of Broadway and Chambers Street, and there partook of a lunch. While there, it is said, it was announced to Stokes that the Grand Jury had found an indictment against him for a conspiracy to extort money from Fisk. Immediately, upon hearing this, he left the party, but without making any remark which would lead any of those who were in his company to suppose that he was bent upon such a deed as assassinating a fellow-being.

Stokes, on leaving Delmonico's, at once proceeded to the Grand Central Hotel, where by some means he had ascertained Colonel Fisk was to call. He was observed by the attachés of the hotel lounging around the corridors and barroom of the place, apparently unconcerned and without any care. He seemed in good spirits, and noticed several acquaintances who met him there.
At a quarter past four Fisk drove up to the ladies' entrance, and stepping out of his carriage, inquired of the door-boy, John Redmond, if Mrs. Morse and her daughter wore in. This Mrs. Morse is said to be the widow of the man who gave Colonel Fisk his first start in the world. The hall-boy answered that he thought Mrs. Morse and her eldest daughter had gone out, but that the younger Miss Morse was in her grandmother's room. Colonel Fisk re­quested the boy to show him up, and the two started, the colonel leading.

At that moment, and before Colonel Fisk had mounted more than two steps, Stokes suddenly made his appearance from some place of concealment, and a shot rang out, which struck Fisk in the abdomen, two inches to the right of the navel and three inches above it, passing downward, backward, and to the left, inflicting a terrible wound. Fisk fell, shouting, " Oh !" and immediately scrambled to his feet again, when Stokes once more leveled his revolver and fired another shot, the ball passing through and out of Fisk's left arm without touching the bone. The latter turned to run, but fell a second time, and slid down to the bottom of the stairs, where he was picked up by the crowd, who had gathered on hearing the re­port of the pistol, and carried up-stairs to an adjoining rum, where he was laid upon the bed, and the house physicians summoned. Stokes appears to have made little, if any, attempt at escape, but walked quietly down­stairs through the main public staircase, and was about leaving the hotel by the rear en­trance when he was stopped by Mr. Powers, the hotel proprietor, and some of his employes. The pistol (a four-barreled one) with which the deed was done was shortly after found, with two chambers discharged, under one of the lounges in the ladies' parlor, where it had evi­dently been thrown by the assassin before descending the stairs.

The police were summoned, and upon their arrival Stokes quietly submitted to arrest, and was escorted to the Mercer Street station, where he was detained until the arrival of the coroner, who, about half-past six, repaired to the hotel, and there, having impanneled a jury, proceeded to take the ante-mortem deposition of the victim. Upon Stokes being brought before him, Colonel Fisk fully identified him as the person who had fired the shots.

Dr. Tripler, the hotel surgeon, was in Fisk's room within a few minutes of the shooting, and probed the wound in the abdomen without success, for the purpose of finding the ball. He made him as comfortable as possible, and awaited the arrival of the other surgeons, who had been sent for before proceeding further.

Soon after this Police Surgeon Beach made his appearance, quickly followed by Drs. Sayre, White, Folsom and Wood. Upon the arrival of Dr. Wood a consultation immediately took place, when it was decided to hold an examination, and extract the ball, if possible. Jay Gould, James Irving, William M. Tweed, John Chamberlain, Jay Gould's clerk, Mrs. and the two Misses Morse, Colonel Hooper and wife, Colonel Fisk's brother-in-law and sister, and several other relatives, were present, having come in response to telegrams stating the colonel a condition.

At about seven o'clock his counsel, Mr. Shearman, who had been sent for, proceeded to draw his will, which was soon accomplished, and the document was signed by Fisk in a firm and distinct band. It has since been announced, that by this will he leaves all his property to his wife, subject to a legacy to his sister, Mrs. Hooker, of $100,000 ; an annuity of $3,000 for the support of his father and mother, and annuities of $2,000 each in favor of the two Misses Morse, until their marriage.

The surgeons were obliged to administer chloroform before they could proceed with the examination. The hole was large enough to have been made by a minie ball. Very little hemorrhage was found, and it was therefore concluded that none of the large vessels had been penetrated. It was feared, however, that the ball had gone through the liver, which lies in a direct line with its course through the body. At eleven o'clock the physicians held a consultation. Dr. Carnochan was called in to assist. It was decided that nothing more could be done for Mr. Fisk until Sunday morning, and as he was doing at the time remarkably well, no attempt to extract the ball was made.

The night dragged wearily its slow hours along at the hotel, while the watchers in the room where Fisk was lying, disregarding the faint lightening of the approaching dawn, waited with intense anxiety in the short spaces that elapsed between each opinion given by the attending physicians about his condition. The circle of thoughtful faces looked at times strangely wan and haggard, as the features, relaxed in involuntary forgetfulness, betrayed truly the nature of the thoughts that were driving one another through each brain. For, despite the common expectancy and the commoner hope that death would not at least come very speedily, a foreboding, inexplicable but not less depressing, seemed to have settled upon all. This could not have been from any betrayal of feeling by the medical attendants, for their faces wore studiously cheerful looks, especially whenever the prostrate man showed any signs of consciousness of his surroundings.

At seven o'clock Sunday morning, it was announced that he was fast sinking, and that the danger of a sudden ending of his intense agony was very great. His pulse was at this time 130. Dr. Fisher went down-stairs in a hurried manner and asked something of the night clerk ; then went back again. He looked very anxious.

Immediately after this, when the hand of the clock pointed a quarter after seven, a carriage driven very rapidly, the horses, wet and dappled with the foam that flew from their nostrils and congealed in the cold air, stopped short at the door. The coachman sprang from his perch, pulled open the door and helped out a lady in a dark traveling-dress, who stepped wearily to the ground. She walked quickly into the por­tico. This was Mrs. Fisk. She bad come from Massachusetts, in obedience to a telegram from her husband, announcing his condition. She displayed great agitation and distress upon reaching his bedside. He continued to sink gradually, remaining in an almost unconscious state until about eleven o'clock in the morning, when, in spite of all that medical skill could accomplish, the irrevocable summons came, and he who on the previous afternoon had been in the full enjoyment of life and health, was now a lifeless corpse, surrounded by a band of mourning relatives and friends.

At two o'clock in the afternoon the body was placed in a casket, and borne in a hearse from the hotel to Mr. Fisk's late residence on Twenty-third Street, in the rear of the Grand Opera House ; there the remains were placed in an ice casket in Mrs. Fisk's private chamber.
Visitors began to pour in, and Twenty-third street, in front of the house, was almost blocked with carriages.

The post-mortem examination of the body was held on Sunday night at half-past nine o'clock, at his late residence in Twenty-third Street. Drs. Janeway and Marsh conducted the examination. Drs. Wood, Sayre, White, Phelps, Tripler and Fisher, with Deputy-Coroners Beach, Marsh and Shine, were also present to assist if necessary. The result of the examina­tion, which was somewhat lengthy, was, first : The wound in the left arm was a flesh wound, the ball passing directly through the arm, entering one inch below the elbow-joint, passing through the inner border of the biceps muscle, and making its exit through the poste­rior aspect of the arm. The fatal wound in the abdomen entered six inches above the umbilicus, and one inch and a half to the right of the median line, passed downward into the left through the omentum and mesentery, piercing two loops of the small intestine, and was found in the left inguinal region, about twenty-two inches below the point of entrance.

There was little or no hemorrhage. All the organs were examined, and the brain, the heart and the kidneys being found in a very healthy condition. A great deal of fat was observed in the omentum and parietes of the abdomen. The examination was concluded at half-past ten.
The funeral obsequies in the city took place on Monday, the 8th inst. The remains reposed in the entrance-hall on the west floor of the Erie building at 11 o'clock. The casket was appropriately decked with wreaths, crosses and cut flowers. All persons were admitted to see the body.
At half-past one o'clock the remains were escorted by the Ninth and other regiments to the New Haven Depot. Thence the cars bore the body away to the quiet New England town of Brattleboro', Vt., where it will be interred.

Short funeral ceremonies were held at Colonel Fisk's residence in Twenty-third Street. The Rev. Dr. Flagg, chaplain of the Ninth Regiment, officiated. The remains were for­warded by the New Haven Railroad.

The Grand Opera House was closed Monday evening.

Shortly after nine o'clock Sunday morning a carriage drove up to the Tombs entrance on Franklin Street. From it alighted Captain Burns, of the Mercer Street police, Stokes, the murderer, and two officers. Stokes looked nervous and sorrow-stricken, but he assumed an air of indifference as he passed the portal of the prison. He said to Captain Burns : " It's just about a year since I've been in this office." The prison being quite full, Stokes was confined temporarily in the same cell with Haggerty, who is charged with stealing the city vouchers. He is said to have expressed to Haggerty a confident expectation that he would be out in a few weeks ; but this remark, if made at all, was probably before he had been informed of the fatal result.
(The text below the woodcut does not indicate who the people watching over Fisk's death bed may have been. The woman on her knees weeping was almost certainly his wife. I strongly suspect the beaded man standing a few feet right of the bed was Jay Gould.)

June 07, 2009

Rarity (again!)


Readers, I BEG you. I mean that I am sincerely begging you, in the strongest possible way, to understand the meaning of the word "rare".

If the word "rare" is being used to describe an item for sale, then "rare" is being used primarily as a marketing term.

I have argued time and time again that every seller using the word "rare" is trying to convince you that there is a direct connection between rarity and value. There is not. Value reflects desireability. There is a 100% direct connection between desireability and value. Sellers desparately want you to believe that rare items are desireable. Many are. But sadly, many rare certificates are hardly desireable at all.