Before the advent of eBay, uncancelled certificates routinely attracted higher prices than those with cancellations. It was not a hard and fast
rule, of course, but intermediate and advanced collectors usually sought uncancelled certificates when they could find them. When offered choices, those collectors tended to bid more for uncancelled examples.
That pattern is harder to see today, It seems intermediate and advanced collectors still
want uncancelled certificates for their collectors. However, are they backing up their desires with dollars?
If we limit our inquiry to items offered in live auctions from established auction companies, I think the answer is a guarded "yes." Those kinds of companies tend to offer better and rarer material. They are expert catalogers and experts in their fields. They know what their buyers want and they usually dedicate a fair amount of space to descriptions. By necessity, photos in printed auction catalogs are usually too small to see details such as cancellation. Sadly, even though all could offer larger images online, few companies do. On the bright side, auction house images of certificates are always rectangular and properly exposed. Between their photos, descriptions and knowledge of their customers, today's high-class auction houses are able to realize relatively high prices for their items. Uncancelled items seem to command moderate premiums.
EBay, on the other hand is an unfocused marketplace. It offers everything. Seller overburden collectors with loads of ultra-common certificates. Descriptions are typically minimal or non-existent. When sellers do offer descriptions, they tend to be off-topic extracts from Wikipedia that say nothing about certificates. Yes, today's eBay photos are notably larger than auction house images and the quality is improving on average. Unfortunately, the quality of many images is still downright
pathetic.
In this setting,
I cannot detect any evidence that cancellations affect eBay prices. Period.
Yes, I know professional dealers argue that uncancelled certificates SHOULD be worth more.
I agree wholeheartedly!
There is only one problem. EBay pricing behavior does not currently support that assumption.
Since I record prices every day, I can testify with absolute certainty that pricing on eBay is crazy. One day a certificate will sell for $30. A month later, a near identical certificate will sell for $100. A few weeks after that, bidding on another near-identical certificate will struggle to reach $20. There are rarely any visible reasons for such insane price swings.
The truth is that insane price swings are normal on eBay, so it is utterly impossible to quantify the effect of cancellation on prices. Any possible distinction is made greatly more difficult because so few sellers mention cancellations in their meager descriptions. Still, because I retain images from every sale, I can usually identify whether the items sold were cancelled or not when entering records into my database. For that reason, I can tell you with certainty that there is NO PREDICTABLE RELATIONSHIP between cancellation and prices on eBay.
Yes, I still estimate price differences between cancelled and uncancelled certificates in my catalog and will continue to do so. On average, I still believe that experienced collectors willingly pay more for uncancelled certificates. It is just that detecting those price differences on eBay is not possible.
